Online Media Predictions for 2007: Video Monetization Models Get Clearer, Sites Go Vertical, Local Search Continues to Grow, RSS Goes Prime Time

This is the time of the year I like best when everyone starts posting their 2007 predictions around multiple topics. I’m a sucker for these things. I could read predictions all year long!

I just happened to find this compilation of predictions by Justin Patten from HumanLaw.org. I might get back to analyzing the whole list but one of them jumped at me: the Online Media 2007 predictions by Cory Treffiletti at MediaPost.

Here are some highlights from that Cory’s interesting list of media predictions:

  1. Copyright and user-generated content. “Google will put to rest two of the larger issues surrounding the potential monetization of YouTube: copyright and user-generated content. Legal precedent will be set and we will see the establishment of a compensation model for the redistribution of video content through the Internet.”
  2. Archive television catalogues will go online with burn-to-order biz models. “Major networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox) will begin to launch their catalogues online and may even move to “burn-to-order” business models where consumers will be able to create their very own compilations of their favorite classic TV shows and burn them to DVDs. “
  3. Social networks will embrace the long tail. “Social networks will segment down to smaller sub-segments of the audience and follow the path the long tail is pointing toward. I think we may see age groups focused in specific networks, or behavioral mindsets focused on these groups. “
  4. Personal start pages will rise in importance again (with behavioral targeting). The proverbial “digital dashboard” will likely become important again. These personal pages will likely be created by someone with a strong understanding of behavioral targeting–because if this is where I always start my day, they can keep track of where I go and how, to personalize the Web for me.
  5. We will see an increase in original video programming online
  6. Local search might come into its own.

What it means: 2006 was certainly the year of the video and in 2007, the same way the Napster story set the ground for a legitimate online music business, I think the YouTube acquisition by Google will definitely set a precedent for the legitimization of the online video business. Google will certainly develop a monetization model which will become the de facto standard. I’m also a strong believer in the verticalization of all sorts of sites (social networks, video sites, etc.). Being all things to everyone is a game that can only be won by a few players. Specialization must occur or you die (I’m sure Darwin must have said that!). Not sure about personal Web start pages (I believe the battle for digital dashboards will occur on the desktop) but I think RSS will play a bigger role in 2007. And, as most of you know, I’m a very strong believer in local search and local advertising.

Update: you can read the 2007 Praized Blog predictions here!

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